Ge Long Hui·2025-12-26 04:03Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Alibaba Cloud has passed its low point, and the fundamentals are expected to improve, with market consensus on the revaluation of Alibaba Cloud [1] - The report emphasizes the ongoing growth of AI cloud services, driven by improved upstream chip supply and increasing AI penetration in the domestic market [1] - Alibaba is noted for its unique full-stack self-developed technology system, which includes chips, servers, cloud computing operating systems, and large models, positioning it among the top tier in terms of revenue scale, growth rate, and profit margins in China [1] Group 2 - ByteDance's Volcano Engine focuses on the MaaS layer, but Alibaba Cloud's advantages in full-stack solutions and ecosystem integrity are difficult to replicate in the short term [2] - The domestic AI chip market is experiencing a surge in demand, with Alibaba's self-developed chips achieving performance levels comparable to international standards, which is crucial for enhancing profit margins and providing differentiated AI services [2] - Alibaba is positioning itself to capture the C-end entry point, aiming to lead the transition from graphical user interfaces to natural language interfaces, leveraging its strengths in traffic operations [2] Group 3 - Alibaba plans to upgrade its Qianwen service to connect with its ecosystem, including Taobao, Gaode, and Alipay, and introduce the "Quark AI Glasses" to enhance user engagement and data asset conversion in the AI era [3] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028, projecting revenues of 1,038.6 billion, 1,143.4 billion, and 1,250.6 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 101.9 billion, 145.5 billion, and 183.6 billion yuan respectively [3] - Using the SOTP valuation method, the target valuation for Alibaba Group is set at 3,412.4 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 203 USD per ADS, indicating a potential upside of 34% [3]