中泰证券：居民资金会否缺席明春行情？

Core Viewpoint - The current investment behavior of residents in the stock market is characterized by a "de-leveraging" trend, reflecting a cautious approach to asset allocation amid macroeconomic changes, contrasting sharply with previous market exuberance periods [1][41]. Group 1: Resident Investment Behavior - The number of new account openings in November 2025 was 2.38 million, showing a recovery from the July low but still significantly lower than previous bull market levels, indicating a slow entry of retail investors [2][41]. - The current market activity is primarily driven by the activation of dormant accounts rather than new retail investors entering the market, with a focus on systematic investment rather than speculative trading [4][44]. - The financing net buying ratio has returned to positive territory, indicating a slight recovery in leveraged funds, but the intensity remains weaker compared to the strong net buying phases of 2019-2020 [5][47]. Group 2: Changes in Fund Flows - The structure of resident fund flows is changing, with a significant shift towards passive investment products like ETFs, which accounted for approximately 72% of new fund issuance in 2025, reflecting a preference for lower-cost investment options [7][49]. - The total issuance of new funds from January to November 2025 was about 530.8 billion yuan, with a monthly average of 48.3 billion yuan, indicating a lack of enthusiasm in the fund issuance market [7][47]. - The net subscription of stock ETFs remained strong, with a single-month net subscription reaching 177.2 billion yuan in April, highlighting the attractiveness of low-cost investment tools for residents [9][49]. Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The slow entry of resident funds is primarily due to the negative feedback from the wealth effect caused by declining real estate prices, which has led to a cautious outlook on future income and increased preference for savings [10][52]. - As of November 2025, cumulative new resident savings deposits reached 12.06 trillion yuan, continuing a trend of high savings since 2022, with a significant portion in fixed-term deposits reflecting risk aversion [12][52]. - The decline in real estate values has resulted in a substantial reduction in household wealth, leading to a defensive accumulation of cash and deposits among residents [13][53]. Group 4: Future Capital Inflows - Insurance funds saw a significant increase in stock and securities investments, with a quarterly growth of 863.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, indicating a strong entry of institutional capital into the market [22][61]. - The projected incremental capital from insurance funds for 2026 is estimated to be around 620 billion yuan, driven by regulatory changes and the need for higher returns in a low-interest-rate environment [24][63]. - The upcoming maturity of high-yield deposits from 2025 to 2026 is expected to create a significant shift in capital flows, potentially leading to increased investment in equity markets as residents seek better returns [25][68]. Group 5: Seasonal Market Trends - The spring season historically shows a significant increase in market activity, with a notable rise in retail investor participation and liquidity, driven by seasonal effects and credit expansion [30][69]. - The financing net buying ratio typically peaks in January, indicating a period of heightened activity and potential for thematic investments during the spring [32][71].