STARTRADER：日元持续走软，市场预期弱势或延续至中期？

Group 1 - The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has not provided sustained support for the yen, reinforcing market perceptions of its structural weakness [1] - The primary factors influencing the yen's movement are the US-Japan interest rate differential, real interest rates, and capital flows, with single policy adjustments having limited impact [2] - Multiple international institutions predict that the yen's depreciation pressure may continue into the medium term, with JPMorgan and BNP Paribas forecasting the USD/JPY exchange rate could rise to 160 or higher by the end of 2026 [2] Group 2 - The yen has experienced a slight appreciation of less than 1% this year after four consecutive years of decline, but expectations of a currency reversal due to the Bank of Japan's rate hike and the Federal Reserve's rate cut have not materialized [5] - The yen's fundamentals have not improved, and in a pessimistic scenario, the USD/JPY rate could reach 164 by the end of 2026, with diminishing marginal effects from future rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [5] - The return of arbitrage trading has continued to suppress the yen, with leveraged funds increasing their short positions against the yen to multi-month highs [7] Group 3 - Japanese households and businesses maintain a strong preference for overseas assets, with retail investors significantly increasing net purchases of foreign stocks, reaching near a decade-high scale [7] - The ongoing growth in Japanese companies' foreign direct investment, with this year's M&A activity reaching multi-year highs, is a significant structural factor contributing to the yen's weakness [7] - As the exchange rate approaches levels that may trigger government intervention, official statements are becoming more assertive, although most analysts believe that intervention alone cannot reverse the yen's medium-term weakness [7]