邓正红能源软实力：俄罗斯产量持平与欧佩克联盟合作进一步印证软实力的双向性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of oil markets, particularly focusing on the role of soft power in shaping international oil pricing and production strategies, highlighting the balance between OPEC and non-OPEC countries in the context of market expectations and supply adjustments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Oil Production and Market Dynamics - Russia's oil and condensate production is expected to remain stable at approximately 516 million tons (about 10.32 million barrels per day) in 2024, indicating a consistent output level [1][2]. - The OPEC alliance is noted for its effective dual adjustment mechanism, which has successfully maintained market balance and avoided price wars among member countries [2]. - The International Group of the Netherlands predicts that by 2026, the oil market will experience a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day, primarily due to OPEC's gradual withdrawal from supply cuts [2][3]. Group 2: Soft Power and Market Influence - The concept of soft power is illustrated through the OPEC alliance's ability to shape market expectations and stabilize oil prices via collective action and production quotas [2]. - The article emphasizes that soft power is reflected in the ability to influence international rules and market behaviors without direct intervention, as seen in the holiday market closures that impact liquidity and investor sentiment [1]. - The potential fragility of soft power is highlighted, as increasing divergences in member countries' interests could undermine the effectiveness of OPEC's coordination efforts [2][3]. Group 3: Future Challenges and Strategic Recommendations - The article points out that non-OPEC countries, such as the U.S. and Brazil, are expected to increase their oil supply, which could counterbalance OPEC's production cuts and lead to market imbalances [3]. - To enhance resilience, OPEC could strengthen dialogue with consuming countries and leverage technological cooperation, such as carbon capture, to transform environmental issues into soft power tools [3]. - The current market environment poses challenges to OPEC's financial stability, making it more difficult to maintain prices through production cuts, thus emphasizing the need for a balance between soft and hard power [3].