李迅雷：居民资金会否缺席明春行情？｜立方大家谈

Core Viewpoint - The current market behavior of resident funds shows a significant "de-leveraging" characteristic, contrasting with previous market cycles where aggressive leveraging was common. The entry of resident funds into the market is slow, reflecting a historical shift in asset allocation preferences under the current macroeconomic context [3][12][17]. Group 1: Resident Fund Behavior - The number of new accounts opened in November 2025 was 2.38 million, which is an improvement from the July low but still below the levels seen during previous bull markets, indicating a cautious approach from retail investors [3][6]. - The current market participation of resident funds is primarily driven by the activation of dormant accounts rather than new investors entering the market, with a focus on systematic investment rather than speculative trading [6][12]. - The financing net buying ratio has returned to positive territory, indicating a slight recovery in leveraged funds, but the intensity remains weaker compared to the aggressive net buying seen in 2019-2020 [9][12]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Fund Flows - There is a notable shift in the structure of fund flows, with passive index funds (ETFs) becoming the main channel for resident market participation, reflecting a preference for low-cost investment products [12][18]. - In 2025, the total issuance of new funds reached approximately 530.8 billion yuan, with passive index funds accounting for about 72% of this total, highlighting a significant preference for passive over active management [12][18]. - The high savings trend among residents continues, with cumulative new savings deposits reaching 12.06 trillion yuan by November 2025, indicating a cautious outlook on future income and a preference for safety [16][17]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in equity investments, with a quarterly increase of 863.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, suggesting a strong entry of institutional funds into the market [26][30]. - The upcoming expiration of high-yield time deposits from 2022-2023 is expected to create a "yield gap," potentially leading to a reallocation of funds towards equity markets as residents seek better returns [31][34]. - The spring market dynamics are anticipated to be characterized by a gradual pace and stronger sustainability, with institutional funds providing a solid foundation while resident participation remains cautious [42][43].