黄金的短期头部在哪里-写在 4510 美元/盎司的“平安夜”

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold breaking through $4,510 per ounce, reflecting a broader increase in the precious metals sector, including silver and copper [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - Three technical signals indicate a potential short-term peak for gold prices: a "shooting star" pattern, MACD divergence, and a declining RSI [3] - The "shooting star" pattern formed with significant upper shadows on the candlestick chart, suggesting strong selling pressure [3] - The MACD indicator shows a divergence, with prices reaching new highs while the indicator peaks are declining, marking the first occurrence since September [3] - The RSI has shown a downward trend from 68 to 64 over three days, indicating a hidden divergence as prices remain above $4,500 [3] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut by December 2025, limiting potential upside for gold unless the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and escalating issues in the Red Sea, have temporarily boosted gold prices, but ETF holdings have decreased by 3 tons, indicating profit-taking by institutions [3] Group 3: Historical Patterns and Price Predictions - Historically, March has seen significant volatility in gold prices, with past instances showing over $100 fluctuations, suggesting a high probability of a peak in March [4] - Analysts predict that if gold fails to close above $4,530 twice this week, a short-term peak will be confirmed, with potential pullback targets at $4,400 and $4,320 [4] - Despite short-term corrections, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for gold to reach $5,000 by 2026 due to ongoing central bank purchases and dollar credit expansion [4]