离岸人民币一度升破7.0！年底升值节奏突然加速

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9912, marking a significant shift in the currency's valuation and indicating a new phase of volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 1: Drivers Behind the RMB Surge - The decline of the USD index has been dramatic, with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle, resulting in a total reduction of 150 basis points in 2025 and a 9.8% annual drop in the USD index, the largest since 2017 [4]. - There has been a concentrated release of corporate foreign exchange settlement demand, with an expected monthly settlement volume of over $200 billion in December, driven by export companies converting USD revenues into RMB [5]. - Economic fundamentals have strengthened, with a record trade surplus of over $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, providing a solid foundation for the exchange rate [6]. Group 2: Market Impacts - There is a new pattern in cross-border capital flows, with over 600 billion yuan net inflow from foreign capital in 2025, and daily trading volume of RMB bonds exceeding 50 billion HKD [6]. - Export companies are facing pressure due to a 6% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which has compressed profit margins by 2-3 percentage points in sectors like home appliances and textiles [7]. - The valuation of A-shares has increased, with the MSCI China Index rising 18% year-to-date, benefiting significantly from the RMB appreciation [7]. Group 3: Future Pathways - In the short term, the RMB may continue its strong performance, with the next target being 6.95, and potential testing of the 6.90 psychological level before the Lunar New Year [8]. - In the medium term, the central bank may intervene if the RMB appreciates rapidly beyond 6.8, and there is a risk of a USD rebound if the Fed's rate cut cycle ends mid-2026 [10]. - Long-term reforms may deepen the marketization of the exchange rate, with potential adjustments to the central parity formation mechanism and an acceleration of RMB internationalization [11]. Group 4: Corporate Responses - Export companies are encouraged to adopt dynamic hedging strategies, such as using forward contracts combined with options to lock in exchange rates while retaining upside potential [12]. - Companies are advised to regionalize their supply chains to reduce reliance on USD settlements and utilize local currencies for risk hedging [12]. - Financial innovation is suggested, including the trial of "currency insurance" products to incorporate exchange rate fluctuations into supply chain financing models [12].