今日中间价远低于市场预期，偏离度创2018年以来最大！央行亮姿态：人民币升太快了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily reference exchange rate for the Renminbi significantly weaker than market expectations, marking the largest deviation on record since the survey began in 2018 [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Setting - On the 26th, the Renminbi's midpoint against the US dollar was reported at 7.0358, an increase of 34 points, reaching a new high since September 30, 2024 [1]. - This midpoint level was 301 points weaker than the average expectations of traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg [2]. - The setting of the midpoint coincided with a strong rebound in the offshore Renminbi exchange rate, which broke the psychological barrier of 7.0 for the first time since September 2024 [2]. Group 2: Central Bank's Intentions - Senior strategist Zhaopeng Xing from Australia & New Zealand Banking Group indicated that the midpoint setting signals the PBOC's intention to prevent rapid appreciation of the Renminbi, aligning with recent commitments made during the quarterly monetary policy meeting [5]. - The PBOC emphasized the need to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain basic stability of the Renminbi at a reasonable and balanced level [5]. Group 3: Factors Behind Renminbi Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi is attributed to three main factors: a weaker US dollar, a rebound in expectations, and seasonal patterns related to year-end and early-year settlement [6]. - The US dollar index peaked on November 21 and has since weakened, coinciding with the acceleration of the Renminbi's appreciation [6]. - A trade easing period was agreed upon following high-level meetings between China and the US, leading to a phase of risk release for the Renminbi [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Central Bank Tools - The PBOC's recent adjustments towards a weaker midpoint reflect its intention to cool down appreciation pressures, but this is seen as an initial stage [9]. - If appreciation pressures persist, the PBOC has various tools at its disposal, including media guidance, market liquidity influence through commercial banks, and adjustments to macro-prudential coefficients for cross-border investment [9]. - Analysts predict that the reasonable potential level for the US dollar against the Renminbi next year could be around 6.8, but short-term signals from the PBOC suggest a focus on stability, likely suppressing rapid unilateral appreciation [9].