独家专访诺奖得主斯宾塞：全球经济在碎片化中寻找新均衡

Core Insights - The global economy is navigating profound changes, characterized by geopolitical conflicts, restructuring of supply chains, and a balance between efficiency and security in national policies [1][3] - Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate, highlights a highly differentiated global economic landscape, with both positive technological advancements and negative factors such as high costs of supply chain diversification and rising sovereign debt [1][5] - The forecast for global economic growth in 2026 is expected to be between low and moderate, contingent on the actions and policies of the United States [1][8] Group 1: Global Economic Characteristics - The most notable change in the global economy is the significant shift in U.S. foreign economic policy, including tariff increases and withdrawal from multilateral agreements, which has deeply affected relationships with allies and trade partners [3][4] - The fragmentation trend in the global economy, which began before the Trump administration, has been accelerated by external shocks and geopolitical tensions, leading to a reorganization of supply chains [3][4] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - Current challenges include high costs associated with supply chain diversification, financial imbalances, and rising sovereign debt, which are constraining the global economy [5][6] - Despite the challenges, there are positive developments in the technology sector, with emerging economies potentially benefiting from new technologies to achieve inclusive growth [5][7] Group 3: Emerging Markets - India is showing resilience with a growth rate around 8%, and several ASEAN countries are performing strongly, although they are heavily reliant on China's economic performance [7] - African nations have growth potential if they can implement growth-oriented policies, but they are also influenced by global economic dynamics [7] Group 4: U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy, which accounts for approximately 25% of global GDP, is expected to influence global economic trends significantly, particularly through its monetary policy and potential sanctions [8][9] - The Federal Reserve is in a complex situation with signs of economic weakening and inflation remaining above target, leading to mixed opinions on interest rate policies [9][10] Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Debt - U.S. consumer spending is increasingly reliant on the top 25% of income earners, while the lower 50% are experiencing consumption fatigue due to economic pressures [12][13] - The long-term sustainability of U.S. debt is in question, with potential economic growth being a critical factor in determining future debt trajectories [13]