碳酸锂突破13万关口！锂矿股全线爆发，年内涨幅逾111%

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by strong performance in lithium carbonate futures and a bullish market sentiment as the Christmas trading season begins [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday, the A-share lithium mining sector saw widespread gains, with stocks like Hainan Mining and Yongxing Materials hitting the daily limit, while others such as Dazhong Mining and Tianhua New Energy also experienced notable increases [2]. - The lithium mining sector has recorded a cumulative increase of 111.4% year-to-date, indicating a robust upward trend [4]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures - Lithium carbonate futures have become a key driver of the market, with the main contract surpassing 130,000 yuan per ton, marking an over 8% increase and reaching a new high since November 2023 [6]. - The spot market for lithium carbonate is also rising, with prices for high-quality lithium carbonate reported between 121,100-122,300 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 4,950 yuan from the previous working day [8]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to expectations of supply contraction in the upstream sector, with major companies announcing production cuts and maintenance schedules [8]. - Notably, two leading companies in the lithium iron phosphate sector have announced production reductions, which are expected to support price increases [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for the lithium mining industry, predicting that the market will continue to experience a balance between supply and demand, with prices expected to rise to 100,000-150,000 yuan per ton [12]. - The lithium battery sector is anticipated to enter a phase of active restocking after two years of inventory depletion, signaling a potential recovery in the fundamentals of the industry by 2026 [12].