人民币，升了

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both external and internal factors, with the RMB exchange rate approaching the 6 range, marking a significant shift in currency dynamics [1][3][8]. External Factors - The US dollar index has been declining, having fallen below 100 since late November and currently trading below 98, which has led to a general appreciation of non-US currencies [4][5]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased the attractiveness of the US dollar, contributing to its weakness [5]. Internal Factors - China's economy has shown resilience, particularly in exports, which grew by 5.7% in November, reversing a previous decline [6]. - There is an increasing demand for currency conversion by enterprises as the year-end approaches, driven by the expectation of RMB appreciation to avoid exchange losses [7]. Global Confidence in Chinese Assets - International institutions have raised their growth forecasts for China, with the IMF predicting a 5% growth rate for 2025, followed by similar adjustments from the World Bank and major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank [9][10]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, foreign holdings of RMB assets reached 10.42 trillion yuan, the highest in nearly 43 months, indicating strong global confidence [13]. Implications of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB has mixed effects; while it benefits imports and consumer spending, it may pressure exports by increasing the foreign currency prices of Chinese goods, potentially squeezing profit margins for exporters [14]. - Maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is a key policy goal, as emphasized in recent economic meetings, to prevent excessive fluctuations and ensure market stability [16][17][18].