TMGM：英镑兑美元守住1.35关口，年内涨幅超8%？

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate slightly retreated to 1.3518 but remains above the 1.35 level, having previously reached a new high of 1.3502 for October, with an annual increase of over 8% [2] - The current exchange rate movement is driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US, the performance of the dollar, and changes in market liquidity [2] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with noticeable internal disagreements among decision-makers, signaling a cautious approach to policy adjustments [2] Group 2 - The UK’s inflation rate fell to 3.2% in November, providing room for monetary policy adjustments, and the market anticipates a gradual pace of future rate cuts by the Bank of England, limiting pressure on the pound [2] - The weakening dollar, which has dropped over 9% this year, is another significant factor affecting the exchange rate, despite a strong GDP growth performance in the US for Q3 [2] - The strong performance of the pound against the weak dollar has contributed to the exchange rate surpassing the critical 1.35 level [2] Group 3 - From a technical analysis perspective, the GBP/USD is in a bullish trend after breaking 1.35, but short-term adjustments may occur due to reduced market liquidity during the Christmas holiday [3] - The 1.34 level is seen as a crucial support level, while the range of 1.3550 to 1.36 constitutes major resistance [3] - Technical indicators suggest a strong overall trend, but the upward momentum is showing signs of slowing down [3]