国泰基金麻绎文：当前AI无整体泡沫，机器人、半导体设备步入兑现期

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a milestone in 2025, with a total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, marking a new high in nearly a decade. The focus is on identifying investment opportunities in various sectors for 2026, particularly in technology [1] Market Performance and Drivers - The A-share market has seen increased activity since 2025, with significant drivers including macroeconomic policy support, advancements in AI and other industries, and confidence from long-term capital inflows such as from Central Huijin [3][4] - Key turning points in the market occurred in April and September 2025, influenced by tariff conflicts and major events [3] AI Sector Analysis - Concerns about an AI bubble are addressed, with the current risk level deemed lower than during the 2000 tech bubble, based on investment intensity and corporate financial health [4][5] - The AI infrastructure's contribution to GDP is approximately 1.5%, which is lower than the 2% seen during the previous tech bubble, indicating a more controlled risk environment [5] Investment Opportunities in Technology - Specific indicators to watch for investment opportunities in 2026 include the release of orders in the Tesla robot supply chain, expansion progress of domestic storage manufacturers, and policy breakthroughs for L3 autonomous driving [1][2] - The semiconductor equipment sector is highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for production expansions from major domestic manufacturers [6][7] Cautionary Notes on Investment - There are risks related to market congestion, particularly in sectors like optical modules, where significant price increases have led to profit-taking [1][11] - The cash flow and capital expenditure guidance of overseas cloud companies, especially smaller firms, should be monitored closely in the second half of 2026 [2][11] Future Market Trends - The market is expected to balance growth and value styles in 2026, with a continued focus on technology sectors that show new industrial trends and lower trading congestion [12][13] - Investment strategies should consider sectors with new industrial trends or directions, particularly in semiconductor equipment, communications, and robotics [13]