债券市场全景盘点：扩容提速、高波动并行，科创债引领新质生产力

Core Insights - In 2025, China's bond market is expected to follow a development path that emphasizes both "scale expansion" and "structural optimization" amid multiple challenges and policy guidance [1] Group 1: Primary Market - The issuance scale of credit bonds reached a record high in the first half of 2025, with 11,077 bonds issued and a total issuance scale exceeding 10.16 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 6.75% and 4.39% respectively [3] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds (科创债) saw explosive growth, surpassing 1.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, becoming a "super engine" for direct financing of technology enterprises [3] - Local government special bonds also performed strongly, with a new issuance scale of 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, focusing on municipal infrastructure, green low-carbon projects, modern logistics, and advanced manufacturing [3] Group 2: Secondary Market - The bond market transitioned from a prolonged "bull market" to a high-volatility oscillation pattern in 2025, with a notable M-shaped yield curve [4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated significantly, starting at approximately 1.6% at the beginning of the year, peaking at 1.9% in mid-March, and stabilizing around 1.81% by November [4] - Key factors influencing the bond market included shifts in monetary policy, ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, and a strong performance in the equity market, particularly from July to September [4] Group 3: Regional Highlights - Henan province emerged as a leader in the central region's bond market, with corporate bond stock surpassing 500 billion yuan for the first time and maintaining annual financing above 100 billion yuan for four consecutive years [5] - The successful issuance of the first state-owned enterprise bond after a regional credit risk event demonstrated local credit recovery capabilities and financial resilience [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, the bond market is expected to remain within a framework of "weak economic recovery + stable policy support," with projected yield fluctuations for 10-year government bonds between 1.5% and 1.8% [7] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to become more proactive, with continued emphasis on special bonds and policy financial tools, while innovation products like technology innovation bonds and green bonds will play a crucial role in supporting new productive forces and promoting high-quality development [7] - The bond market is evolving into a more diverse, efficient, and secure platform, increasingly serving as a conduit for national strategic implementation and providing essential financial support for China's economic transformation [7]