百利好晚盘分析：节后行情 金价调整

Gold Market - The recent Christmas holiday in Europe and the US has led to a quieter news environment for gold [2] - The gold bull market this year is driven by multiple favorable factors, including global central bank purchases disrupting supply-demand balance, a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards easing, and concerns over the US dollar's credibility due to Trump's trade policies and rising national debt [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, concerns over US dollar credibility and sovereign debt are expected to persist, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions, suggesting that the gold bull market may continue [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau Special Research believes that with lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, long-term support for gold prices remains unchanged, although after two years of a bull market, prices are likely to oscillate between consolidation and continuation [2] - On the technical front, recent price action shows a strong upward trend, with support found at the 20-day moving average [2] Oil Market - The oil market has been under pressure this year due to oversupply, leading to weak price performance [3] - Future prospects indicate that expanded sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US and Europe may create obstacles for buyers, providing some support for oil prices despite no significant decline in Russian oil output [3] - Oil-producing countries have significantly increased production this year, particularly non-OPEC nations, but the urgency for further increases from Saudi Arabia has diminished, as evidenced by OPEC+ pausing production increases in Q1 of next year [3] - Demand-side improvements are anticipated as global trade conditions become clearer, with recent reports from major global agencies raising oil demand growth forecasts [3][4] - The technical outlook shows a potential for a short-term price rebound, with key support at $58 and resistance at $60 [4] US Dollar Index - There is considerable internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, which may limit the downside for the dollar [5] - The potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by the US President could challenge the Fed's independence, especially given Trump's preference for loose monetary policy, which may exert downward pressure on the dollar [5] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 15.5%, with an 84.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged [6] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with recent price action showing signs of stabilization, but the dollar remains below the 20-day moving average [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of high-level consolidation over the past month, with no clear directional movement until a breakout occurs [7] - The index is currently above the 20-day moving average, and a bullish crossover between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages suggests a higher likelihood of further gains [7] Copper Market - The copper market is showing strong bullish momentum, with recent price action indicating a breakout from a consolidation range [8] - The 20-day moving average continues to trend upward, indicating that bullish sentiment is dominant [8] - Key support is noted at $5.62, which will be monitored for potential price corrections [8] Market Overview - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that oil consumption has increased by over 1 million barrels per day annually over the past two years, with projections suggesting a potential increase of 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [9] - Saudi government data indicates an 11.8% increase in commodity exports in October, with oil exports rising by 4.0% [9] - An agreement has been reached between Iraq, the Kurdistan region, and international companies to extend the oil export agreement for three months until March 31 of next year [10]