博时市场点评12月26日：两市放量震荡，沪指录得八连阳

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight-day winning streak, with the market's trading volume increasing to 2.18 trillion yuan [1] - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, totaling 50 basis points, influenced by political factors such as the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and the change in Fed leadership [1] Currency and Trade - The offshore RMB broke the "7" threshold against the USD for the first time in 15 months, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB also approached the "7" mark, hitting 7.0053 [2] - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by a weaker U.S. dollar index due to Fed rate cut expectations and seasonal demand for currency settlement by domestic companies [2] - China's export scale and trade surplus have reached historical highs, indicating resilience in export structure and direction, with expectations for continued strong performance in exports next year amid improving Sino-U.S. trade relations [1] Investment Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the launch of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund, with a total scale exceeding 120 billion yuan, focusing on cutting-edge technology sectors such as AI and quantum technology [2] - This initiative aims to attract more social capital to support early-stage and startup tech companies, potentially benefiting the A-share market and the venture capital sector [2] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan in December [3] - The total net injection of medium-term liquidity since the beginning of the year has reached 49.61 billion yuan, indicating a continued "stable and slightly loose" monetary policy approach [3] Market Performance - On December 26, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3963.68 points, up 0.10%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.54% and 0.14%, respectively [4] - The sectors showing the highest gains included non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and steel, with increases of 3.69%, 1.40%, and 1.34% respectively [4] - A total of 1,819 stocks rose while 3,239 stocks fell on the same day [4] Capital Flow - The market's trading volume reached 21.81 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance reported at 25.45 billion yuan, also showing an increase [5]