供需博弈加剧！碳酸锂期货突破12万元／吨，广期所发布风控措施，机构提示回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by supply-side disruptions, particularly the proposed cancellation of mining rights in Yichun, which has raised concerns about supply constraints, despite a stable increase in lithium production [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On December 24, the main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 113,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,360 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 5.23% [1]. - As of December 25, the price settled at 119,840 yuan/ton, indicating ongoing volatility in the market [1]. - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau announced the potential cancellation of 27 mining licenses, which has contributed to market concerns about supply reduction [2]. - Despite these concerns, domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by approximately 3% month-on-month in December, indicating no substantial supply-demand imbalance [1][3]. Production and Inventory Trends - The total lithium carbonate production for the week was reported at 22,045 tons, with a slight increase from the previous week [6]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased to 110,425 tons, down 1,044 tons from the previous week, suggesting a continued trend of inventory reduction [6][7]. - The comprehensive operating rate of lithium salt plants in December was around 68%, showing a slight increase, with no signs of production cuts anticipated [7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, with downstream material manufacturers actively signing contracts and preparing for the upcoming Spring Festival [6][9]. - However, there is a cautious sentiment among downstream manufacturers regarding current spot prices, with procurement primarily focused on essential needs rather than speculative buying [9]. - The market is currently experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, with potential over-speculation noted [10]. - Future price movements will depend on supply-side developments, including the status of major mining projects and the import volume of lithium concentrate [10].