RSPC(SZ:002493) Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-12-26 11:08Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in domestic PX (para-xylene) and PTA (purified terephthalic acid) futures prices is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including global energy restructuring, optimized supply capacity, and ongoing industrial policy support [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - On December 26, PX futures rose by 4% to a peak of 7618 yuan/ton, while PTA futures surpassed 5300 yuan/ton, both reaching nearly one-year highs [1]. - The PX industry chain is becoming a significant profit breakthrough point in the refining sector, with expectations of high profitability due to limited supply growth and recovering demand [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global PX capacity is expected to see no new additions in 2024 and 2025, with new projects planned for late 2026, creating a supply gap in the first half of 2026 [4]. - The current PX industry capacity utilization rate has exceeded 85%, indicating limited supply elasticity [4]. - The textile and apparel sectors in China and the U.S. may experience a replenishment wave in 2026, further driving demand for PX and its downstream products [4]. Group 3: Industry Structure - The domestic PX and PTA industries exhibit significant concentration, with the top three PX producers accounting for 54% of total capacity by the end of 2025 [6]. - Major PX producers include Rongsheng Petrochemical (1040 million tons), Sinopec (750 million tons), and PetroChina (630 million tons) [7]. - The PTA industry also shows high concentration, with the top three companies holding 52% of total capacity, led by Yisheng Petrochemical (2150 million tons) [8]. Group 4: Market Performance - Leading companies in the PX and PTA sectors have seen their stock prices rise significantly, with Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical experiencing increases of 17.26%, 21.63%, and 15.42% respectively over the past two weeks [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The supply-demand landscape for PX and PTA is expected to continue optimizing into 2026, with no new PTA capacity and a focus on existing competition [10]. - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to lead to a contraction in supply, further improving the industry structure [10]. - Companies with integrated "crude oil-aromatic-PTA-polyester" supply chains, such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, are positioned to benefit significantly from the improving industry cycle [10].