全球贸易在2026年前景如何？分析师：这四个“不确定性”很关键

Group 1: Global Trade Trends - Despite the construction of tariff barriers by the largest global economy, international trade in goods is expected to maintain a relatively strong momentum through 2025, with significant growth in imports from developing economies in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America [1] - In October, global container freight volume increased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the global container supply chain is undergoing adjustments and reshaping trade patterns, with a projected 15.2% increase in U.S. container imports for 2024, followed by a contrasting trend in 2025 [1] - Trade experts anticipate increased turbulence in international trade over the next year, with four key uncertainties identified: the review of the USMCA, the reopening of the Red Sea route, agreement uncertainties, and the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs from the Trump administration [1] Group 2: USMCA Review - The U.S., Canada, and Mexico are set to review the USMCA, which came into effect in 2020, with over 1,500 responses received during the public consultation period [3] - Stakeholders have expressed support for the USMCA while calling for improvements, although any enhancements by one member could come at the expense of another [3] - Tensions between the U.S. and Canada have escalated following the suspension of trade negotiations due to a tariff advertisement controversy [3] Group 3: Shipping Industry Concerns - Shipping companies are worried about the upcoming year, with potential disruptions similar to those experienced during the pandemic due to two significant changes in global shipping routes [4] - The return to the Red Sea shipping route could lead to an oversupply of capacity and severe port congestion in Europe, while demand from a potential U.S. economic boom in 2026 could overwhelm the shipping industry [4] - The timing and pace of the Red Sea route's full restoration remain uncertain, with no unified timeline from shipowners [4] Group 4: Trade Agreements and Legal Uncertainties - The Trump administration's trade agreements, while resulting in investment commitments and better market access for U.S. exports, lack traditional legal binding and enforcement mechanisms [6][7] - Ongoing negotiations with the EU and India are expected to continue into the new year, with threats of retaliation against the EU for perceived excessive regulation of U.S. tech companies [7] Group 5: Supreme Court Ruling Implications - A significant unknown in global trade for 2026 is the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the Trump administration's tariffs, which could require the government to refund tariffs paid by importers if the administration loses [8][9] - The likelihood of the Trump administration losing the case is estimated at 75%, which could force the government to utilize other powers to impose tariffs [9] - The increasing number of companies joining the lawsuit indicates a growing belief in the potential for a favorable ruling, with expectations that the outcome may not be limited to the plaintiffs [9]