金、银价格再创历史新高！

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold and silver prices reached historical highs on December 26, with gold hitting $4,531.284 per ounce and silver reaching $75.142 per ounce, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's renewed easing cycle, declining dollar credibility, and escalating global geopolitical risks [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is supported by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's resumption of a loose monetary policy, a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, and increased global geopolitical risks [1]. - According to CICC's latest report, gold prices have exceeded the firm's long-term price forecast, indicating a potential bubble as current prices are significantly above the short-term valuation model [1]. - CICC believes that the gold bull market may not be over due to the absence of turning points in Federal Reserve policy and the US economy, but warns of increased market volatility as prices deviate from fundamental indicators [1]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The logic for silver differs slightly, with Nanhua Futures noting that due to a smaller market size and rigid industrial demand, silver prices are highly sensitive to increases in investment and speculative demand [2]. - There is a focus on the appointment of the new Federal Reserve chairman and economic data's impact on monetary policy expectations, with silver exhibiting high volatility and associated price risks [2]. Group 3: Fund Restrictions - On December 25, the Guotai Asset Management announced restrictions on the Guotai Ruijin Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF), limiting regular investment amounts to 100.00 yuan, effective from December 29, 2025 [3]. - The fund's announcement highlighted that as of December 25, 2025, the market closing price was 2.804 yuan, significantly above the net asset value, indicating potential risks for investors who blindly invest in high premium funds [4]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Huaxi Securities previously reported that despite a decline in demand, the supply-side gap remains significant, supporting silver prices, with expectations of a widening supply-demand gap in the coming years [5]. - The industrial recovery demand under a loose monetary policy is expected to make silver more elastic than gold, with the current gold-silver ratio at a high level, suggesting potential for recovery in silver prices [5].