光伏“反内卷”再现重要信号,距离“逆转”越来越近了?

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase by multiple silicon wafer companies signals a shift from "price wars" to "rational collaboration" within the photovoltaic industry, indicating a potential turning point for the sector [1][9]. Group 1: Price Increase and Industry Dynamics - Major silicon wafer companies, including Longi Green Energy, have collectively raised prices by an average of 12% as of December 25, 2025, marking a significant industry self-regulation signal [1][9]. - The price increase is driven by several factors: rising costs of upstream polysilicon, supply contraction due to production cuts, and a recovery in demand from downstream battery manufacturers [1][9]. Group 2: Industry Recovery and Challenges - The photovoltaic industry has undergone a painful "self-purification" process over the past two years, with the current focus on "anti-involution" highlighting insufficient progress in industry cleansing [2][10]. - "Component pricing" is identified as a critical factor for the success of the anti-involution efforts, which involves the ability to pass increased costs from upstream to downstream buyers [2][11]. Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - Upstream polysilicon and silicon wafer sectors have begun to recover, with some polysilicon companies achieving profitability by Q3 2025 [11]. - The midstream battery segment is experiencing price increases, while the downstream photovoltaic component sector remains under pressure, with only a 1.91% price increase from June to mid-December 2025, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [12]. - The industry is expected to enter a phase of "fundamental verification," with the fourth-quarter financial reports being crucial for confirming continued profitability improvements [4][12].