“织”道系列九-九兴控股(01836.HK)深度：九转功成 兴替之间

Company - JiuXing Holdings is a leading high-end footwear manufacturer providing ODM services for top global brands such as Nike, Prada, and Balenciaga [1] - The company has undergone a significant transformation since 2019, focusing on high-end product manufacturing and optimizing its production layout in Southeast Asia, resulting in improved profit margins and capital returns [1] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 11.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.2 billion yuan, positioning it among the second-tier domestic footwear manufacturers with competitive profit margins [1] - JiuXing focuses on high-end manufacturing, achieving a unit price of over 200 yuan and a gross margin of 20%-25%, supported by high R&D spending and a growing number of high-end clients [2] - The company has diversified its product categories, increasing its share in the sports segment, which is expected to enhance order certainty and profitability [2] - JiuXing's production system is centered in China with significant capacity in Southeast Asia, with 2024 capacity distribution projected at 24% in China, 52% in Vietnam, and 20% in other Asian regions [3] - The company is expected to see annual growth in orders driven by increased market share from existing clients and new customer acquisitions, with a focus on expanding production in Indonesia and Bangladesh [3] - Profitability is anticipated to improve through enhanced efficiency in new factories and product structure optimization, with projected net profits of 1.6 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Industry - The demand side of the industry is experiencing structural opportunities, with the U.S. apparel sector nearing the end of inventory destocking, and the high-end segment expected to see a recovery in performance by Q3 2025 [1] - The supply side is becoming increasingly globalized and concentrated, with second-tier suppliers showing greater growth potential due to larger market share and higher expansion enthusiasm [1] - The head sports manufacturing companies still have room for profit recovery, with expectations for improved profits in export chain companies next year [2]