日元空头共识渐成：2026年或跌破160大关，日本央行谨慎政策难解困局

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Japanese yen is increasingly bearish, with major institutions predicting a significant depreciation against the US dollar by the end of 2026, driven by high interest rate differentials and negative real interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Major institutions like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas forecast that the yen will fall below 160 against the dollar by the end of 2026, with some predictions as low as 164 [1][3]. - The yen has only seen a marginal increase of less than 1% against the dollar this year, failing to recover from a four-year decline, and currently hovers around 156, close to its early year low of 158.87 [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The fundamental weakness of the yen is a primary concern, with predictions that this situation will not improve significantly in the near future [3][5]. - The cyclical forces are expected to turn increasingly unfavorable for the yen, as the market prices in higher interest rates in other regions, limiting the impact of the Bank of Japan's tightening policies [3][5]. Group 3: Capital Outflow - Domestic capital outflow is a significant factor pressuring the yen, with retail investors maintaining high levels of overseas stock investments, around 9.4 trillion yen (600 billion) [4]. - Japanese companies are also increasingly investing abroad, with direct investment levels remaining stable and M&A activity reaching new highs, further exacerbating the yen's depreciation [4]. Group 4: Intervention Risks - The risk of official intervention has resurfaced as the yen approaches levels that previously triggered government action, but market experts believe that mere intervention may not reverse the structural depreciation trend [6]. - Despite warnings from officials about excessive speculation, the market remains volatile, and simple smoothing operations may not be effective in changing the yen's downward trajectory [6].