Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-26 13:16Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has adjusted its semiconductor policy towards China, allowing high-end AI chip exports under strict licensing while delaying new tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products by 18 months, indicating a shift from comprehensive restrictions to a more calibrated approach aimed at maintaining a competitive edge [1][2][5]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced that tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products will not be imposed for at least 18 months, with zero tariffs on imports until June 2027 [2][3]. - The USTR's decision to delay tariffs is seen as a strategy to stabilize global supply chains and reduce uncertainty for multinational companies adjusting their procurement and manufacturing in China [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The delay in tariffs is perceived as a way for the U.S. to retain negotiation leverage while signaling to China that tariffs could be imposed at any time [5][6]. - The focus of the U.S. investigation is on "mature process" chips, which are critical for various industries, and there are concerns about U.S. dependency on China for these chips despite maintaining an edge in high-end technology [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - Companies like NVIDIA and AMD are actively seeking to expand their presence in the Chinese market, with NVIDIA's H200 AI chip export approval expected to generate $10 billion to $15 billion annually [7][9]. - AMD's CEO has expressed intentions to deepen cooperation with China, indicating a trend among U.S. tech firms to navigate the complex regulatory landscape while pursuing market opportunities [9][10]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing adjustments in U.S. semiconductor policy reflect a broader strategy of maintaining competitive advantages while allowing for limited cooperation with China, though significant strategic distrust remains [10][11]. - The fluctuating nature of U.S. policies regarding semiconductor exports to China suggests that the underlying tensions in U.S.-China relations are likely to persist, complicating future interactions in the tech sector [10][11].