白银还能更疯狂？库存耗尽、金银比坍塌，资深分析师喊出300美元天价

Core Viewpoint - Silver is becoming one of the most sought-after trading assets for 2025, driven by structural supply shortages and strong industrial demand, with futures prices soaring 154% this year and approximately 40% this month alone [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The core logic behind the surge in silver prices is the market's re-evaluation of long-term structural deficits, with a cumulative deficit of approximately 800 million ounces over the past five years, nearly equivalent to a full year's mine supply [4] - The Silver Institute predicts that this deficit will persist for the next five years, with significant reductions in inventory at major exchanges like London, New York, and Shanghai contributing to a fundamental market shift [4] - Industrial demand is primarily driven by solar panel manufacturers, with advancements in technology expected to further increase silver consumption. Additionally, investment demand for silver ETFs is projected to reach nearly 200 million ounces this year, significantly exceeding previous forecasts of 70 million ounces [4] "Frenzy Phase" and $300 Price Target Logic - The $300 price target is based on a significant correction in the gold-silver ratio, which peaked at 104 in April and has since fallen to around 68. Predictions suggest this ratio could drop to 15 during the upcoming "frenzy phase" [5] - Using a current gold price of approximately $4,500, dividing by a ratio of 15 yields a silver target price of $300. While some forecasts are more aggressive (ranging from $800 to $1,000), the analysis presents a more conservative and realistic path [5] Short-term Outlook - The market position for silver is strong, having confirmed a support level at $50 in October. However, short-term corrections are expected, and while minor adjustments may occur, the key factors supporting the bullish trend are likely to remain in place for an extended period [6]