Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-12-26 13:37Market Overview - The US dollar index has shown a weak performance, dropping below the 98 mark, reflecting market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. As of the report, the index stands at 97.93 [1] - Precious metals have been the standout performers this week, with gold reaching a historical high of over $4530 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70%. Silver also surged, breaking the $75 per ounce barrier [1] - Non-US currencies, particularly the euro, pound, and Australian dollar, have strengthened against the US dollar due to its weakness, while the Japanese yen has shown signs of intervention [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market has continued its upward trend, with the S&P 500 index reaching new closing highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, driven by strong performances in the chip and tech sectors, despite some volatility in individual stocks [2] Investment Bank Insights - Barclays has raised its GDP growth forecast for the US in Q4. BlackRock believes that the Fed's rate cuts in 2026 may be limited. Mitsubishi UFJ predicts further weakening of the dollar by 2026. Societe Generale notes that the yen's recovery may be limited, while Morgan Stanley suggests the Bank of Japan may continue to raise rates [5] - UBS warns that FOMO and bubble anxiety may lead to increased volatility in the stock market in 2026 [6] Major Events - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with gold maintaining high levels and silver breaking through key price points. The surge is attributed to central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and geopolitical uncertainties [7] - The National Investment Silver LOF experienced a dramatic reversal, going from consecutive gains to a sharp decline due to high premiums and market corrections [8] - The US economy showed unexpected growth in Q3, with a 4.3% annualized increase, but economists warn that this growth may not be sustainable into Q4 due to potential government shutdowns [9][10] - The US has increased military presence in the Caribbean amid rising tensions in Venezuela, with plans for potential military action against the Maduro government [12][13] - Ukraine's President Zelensky has proposed a new peace plan with Russia, focusing on ceasefire and humanitarian issues, but key political status questions remain unresolved [14][15][16] - The People's Bank of China has introduced a one-time credit repair policy to assist individuals with overdue debts, aiming to improve their credit status [17] - Japan's 2026 fiscal budget has raised concerns about fiscal sustainability, with a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen, driven by social security costs and defense spending [18][19] Corporate Developments - Nvidia has secured a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Groq for chip technology, aiming to enhance its position in the AI chip market, with plans to deliver H200 chips to Chinese customers before the Lunar New Year [22] - The acquisition battle for Warner Bros. has intensified, with Oracle founder Larry Ellison personally backing a $40.4 billion offer from Paramount, increasing competition with Netflix [23]