2026年，黄金“疯牛”行情还能走多远？

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, gold emerged as one of the best-performing assets globally, with a cumulative increase of over 70%, while the S&P 500 index rose by approximately 17% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve restarted its easing cycle in September 2025, cutting rates by 25 basis points, followed by another similar cut in October [2] - Market expectations for a third consecutive rate cut in December increased due to signs of economic weakness and dovish signals from key policymakers [2] - The market anticipates an additional 60 basis points of easing in 2026, equivalent to two potential 25 basis point cuts and a possible third cut [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Tariff Policies - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising tensions between India and Pakistan, have significantly driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The imposition of comprehensive tariffs by the U.S. has further heightened demand for gold, as countries retaliate with their own tariff threats [3] - Despite some conflicts easing, gold continues to attract investment as a hedge against high-risk assets, particularly in a volatile stock market environment [3] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Reserves and De-dollarization - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold to diversify their reserves, with significant purchases from countries like China and India [4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 634 tons, significantly above pre-2022 averages, providing strong support for gold prices [4] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue into 2026 amid ongoing trade policy uncertainties [4] Group 4: Gold-Silver Ratio and Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio is approaching the 60 mark, which may trigger a rebound in gold prices as it indicates potential for gold to catch up with silver's performance [5][6] - Despite gold's strong performance, silver and platinum have outperformed gold, with silver's price increasing over 150% in 2025 [6] - The recent volatility in silver prices has raised questions about the sustainability of its upward trend, while gold remains strong [6] Group 5: 2026 Outlook and Price Projections - The factors driving gold's record highs in 2025 are expected to persist into early 2026, with bullish targets potentially reaching $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce [8] - Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, with significant upside risks if private sector purchases exceed expectations [8] - However, potential challenges include cautious behavior from central banks and the possibility of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts being less aggressive than currently anticipated, which could slow gold's momentum in the latter half of 2026 [8]