Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-26 15:30Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has adjusted its semiconductor policies towards China, allowing high-end AI chip exports under strict licensing conditions while delaying new tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products for 18 months, indicating a shift from comprehensive restrictions to a more calibrated approach aimed at maintaining a competitive edge [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has decided to impose tariffs on Chinese chips starting in 2027, ending a previous trade investigation initiated by the Biden administration [1][2]. - The USTR's announcement indicates that the U.S. will initially impose zero tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products until June 2027, with specific tariff increases yet to be determined [2][3]. - The 18-month tariff delay is seen as a measure to stabilize global supply chain expectations, allowing multinational companies to adjust their chip procurement and manufacturing strategies in China [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The delay in tariff implementation is perceived as a way to avoid immediate supply chain disruptions and inflation spikes in the U.S., as the country still relies on Chinese supplies for traditional process chips [3][4]. - The U.S. aims to retain negotiation leverage while signaling to China that tariffs could be enacted at any time, creating a strategic ambiguity [5][6]. - The U.S. government is also considering broader tariffs on semiconductor-containing electronic products, which could further complicate U.S.-China relations [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - Companies like NVIDIA and AMD have received approvals to export certain AI chips to China, indicating a significant influence of commercial interests on policy decisions [6][9]. - NVIDIA's H200 chip, now approved for export, is expected to generate substantial revenue for the company, highlighting the financial stakes involved in U.S.-China tech relations [7][9]. - AMD's CEO has expressed intentions to deepen investments in China, reflecting a trend among U.S. tech firms to navigate the complex regulatory landscape while seeking market opportunities [9][10]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing adjustments in U.S. semiconductor policy suggest that while there may be short-term improvements in U.S.-China tech cooperation, the long-term strategic competition and mutual distrust are likely to persist [10][11]. - The fluctuating nature of U.S. policies regarding chip exports indicates that the underlying tensions between the two nations remain unresolved, with potential implications for global supply chains and technological advancements [10][11].