重磅，人民币回归6时代，特朗普目的达到？欧央行：美元霸权结束

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has surged past the 7 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9960, marking its return to the 6 range for the first time since September of last year, driven by year-end corporate foreign exchange settlements and strong economic data from China [2] - The appreciation of the RMB benefits consumers, making overseas purchases and studying abroad cheaper, while it poses challenges for export companies, particularly smaller firms, as their profit margins are squeezed due to lower RMB returns from USD-denominated sales [4] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate to maintain stability, as the RMB's strength is supported by a robust trade surplus, but future domestic demand and credit conditions could necessitate policy support [4] Group 2 - The weakening of the USD is linked to President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and his push for lower interest rates to alleviate the US debt burden, which has led to a decline in the USD index from 110 to below 100 [6][9] - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve raises concerns about its independence, as he appoints individuals who support his monetary policy agenda, potentially undermining global investor confidence in the USD [8][9] - The European Central Bank, under Lagarde, is seizing the opportunity to challenge the USD's dominance, advocating for the euro's increased role in international trade and financial systems, as the euro's share of global reserves has risen to 20% [11][13] Group 3 - The return of the RMB to the 6 range is part of a broader shift in the global currency landscape, with the weakening USD accelerating de-dollarization efforts and increasing the euro's prominence [13] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and the European economic landscape suggests that while RMB assets are becoming attractive to foreign investors, companies must adapt to currency fluctuations and enhance product competitiveness [13] - The overall currency dynamics reflect a competition of national strengths, with China's economic resilience and foreign investment inflows supporting a stable RMB, while the central bank will manage volatility to prevent extreme fluctuations [13]