广发期货：铁合金维持区间波动

Supply Overview - In 2025, silicon iron production is expected to reach 5.1 million tons, an increase of 17,500 tons compared to the same period in 2024, with Gansu showing the most significant growth and Qinghai experiencing the largest decline [1] - By 2026, silicon iron capacity is projected to reach 10.413 million tons, with an expected increase of 1.038 million tons, and approximately 252,000 tons of capacity is confirmed to be put into production, mainly in the second half of the year [1] - Manganese silicon production in 2025 is expected to remain stable at 9.283 million tons, with a slight increase of 13,000 tons compared to 2024, driven by significant production increases in Ningxia and Yunnan [3] Demand Overview - The demand for silicon iron in 2025 is expected to exceed expectations due to improved steel mill profitability, with pig iron production projected to grow by 1.1% year-on-year, reaching an average daily output of 2.37 million tons [1] - Manganese silicon demand is also anticipated to grow in 2025, supported by strong steelmaking demand, although high supply levels may pressure prices [3] - The overall iron alloy demand in 2026 is expected to remain resilient but with limited year-on-year growth, making supply a key factor in price trends [5] Export and Market Dynamics - Silicon iron exports from January to October 2025 are projected at 336,700 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to impacts from trade disruptions with Russia and North Korea, as well as weak demand from traditional importing countries like Japan and South Korea [1] - The manganese ore market in 2025 is characterized by strong supply and demand, with low inventory levels supporting manganese silicon production costs [4] Cost Factors - Key cost components for silicon iron include electricity and coal prices, with coal prices expected to show a V-shaped trend in 2025, rebounding in the second half of the year [2] - Electricity prices are anticipated to fluctuate significantly due to accelerated marketization, with the rapid growth of renewable energy installations reshaping the power supply-demand landscape [2] Price Outlook - For 2026, iron alloy prices are expected to experience limited fluctuations, with supply elasticity being the main factor influencing price direction, while cost variables are anticipated to remain stable [5] - Projected price ranges for silicon iron are between 5,200 to 6,400 yuan per ton, and for manganese silicon, between 5,300 to 6,700 yuan per ton [5]