美债掀全球减持潮，美联储真慌了！中国迎来战略破局窗口

Group 1 - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $11.8 billion in October 2025, bringing its total to $688.7 billion, the lowest level since 2008, marking a strategic withdrawal that has seen nearly half of its holdings cut since the peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 [1] - The total US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, which is more than military spending, indicating a potential "Ponzi scheme" characteristic of what was once considered a safe asset [1] - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year in December 2025, lowering the target range to 3.5-3.75%, a move seen as a desperate measure to manage debt rather than a standard economic stimulus [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve for larger and faster rate cuts, with each 1% cut potentially saving the government nearly $400 billion in interest payments, highlighting the political challenges to the Fed's independence [3][5] - The market's confidence in US Treasuries is waning, evidenced by a failed 20-year bond auction in May 2025, where yields surged to 5.047%, reflecting extreme distrust in long-term US debt [5] - Global capital is reassessing the risks associated with US Treasuries, with Canada reducing its holdings by $56.7 billion in October 2025, the largest monthly decline of the year [5] Group 3 - China is strategically reducing its US Treasury holdings while increasing its gold reserves, which reached 2,292 tons by March 2025, with a significant monthly import of 127.5 tons in April, up 73% year-on-year [7] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is progressing, with the CIPS system connecting 1,729 institutions across 189 countries, and Renminbi settlements in Southeast Asia coal trade exceeding 30% [7] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement supports local currency transactions, allowing Chinese exports to Southeast Asia without needing to convert to US dollars, gradually eroding the dollar's dominance in the region [7] Group 4 - The US-China trade consensus reached at the end of 2025 reflects a pragmatic choice under pressure, as various stakeholders in the US oppose tax increases, emphasizing the importance of maintaining low-cost imports to control inflation [8] - China's export controls on critical metals and rare earths are impacting the US high-end military supply chain, with significant delays in production for companies like Lockheed Martin [10] - The Federal Reserve's plan to restart a $40 billion monthly bond purchase program is seen as a self-financing scheme, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt without foreign buyers [10] Group 5 - China's trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a growing demand for Renminbi to purchase Chinese goods, with its share in cross-border trade settlements rising to 5.8% [10] - The digital Renminbi is making strides in cross-border applications, particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative, which could enhance settlement efficiency and reduce reliance on the SWIFT system [12] - The US consumer confidence index has dropped to 52.9, a 30% decline year-on-year, with a significant portion of the population reporting worsened financial conditions due to high prices, painting a contrasting picture of the US economy [12] Group 6 - China is adopting a gradual approach to reducing its US Treasury holdings, opting for a strategy of "not renewing" maturing bonds at a pace of $50-80 billion annually, signaling caution without causing market volatility [13] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, contrasting with the decline in US Treasury holdings, indicating a shift from "scale expansion" to "structural optimization" in reserve management [13] - In the context of Fed rate cuts and global sell-offs of US debt, China benefits from a complete industrial chain, diversified reserves, and a large domestic market, providing greater strategic flexibility [13]