模组出货领跑全球 中国蜂窝物联网产业全面爆发

Core Insights - The Chinese IoT industry is experiencing strong growth, with the number of connections expected to exceed 3.5 billion this year [2] - The global cellular IoT module shipments are projected to grow by 10% year-on-year by Q3 2025, with China showing a 7% increase driven by smart meters and POS terminals [2][3] - The development of IoT communication technology in China is rapidly advancing from 5G to 6G, satellite networks, and quantum communication [3] Industry Overview - Cellular IoT, also known as mobile IoT, allows devices to connect to the internet using mobile communication networks, facilitating ubiquitous connectivity [4] - As of June 2025, China's three major telecom operators are expected to have developed 2.831 billion mobile IoT terminal users [4] - The development of mobile IoT in China can be divided into three stages: technological foundation, commercial breakthrough, and scale explosion, with the commercial launch of 5G in 2019 marking a significant turning point [4][5] Market Dynamics - The growth of China's cellular IoT is driven by a combination of policy support, technological advancements, and market demand [5][6] - The Cat-1 bis technology has emerged as a mainstream choice for mid-speed IoT applications, with its global shipment share expected to approach 50% by Q3 2025 [5] - The demand for digital transformation in traditional industries, along with the need for upgrading devices like smart meters and POS terminals, is fueling market growth [6] Competitive Landscape - China has established a complete industrial chain for cellular IoT, with competitive companies emerging in chip design, module manufacturing, and application deployment [7] - Key players in the chip design sector include Aojie, Unisoc, and Shanghai Yixin, which are recognized for their advancements in the Cat-1 bis field [7] - The module industry is led by companies like Quectel, China Mobile, and Rida, with Rida achieving a remarkable 73% year-on-year growth [7][8] Future Outlook - The industrial internet market in China is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, becoming a significant driver for overall IoT growth [8] - The transition from a "selling connectivity" model to a "selling computing power" model is seen as a crucial challenge for the industry [9][10] - The commercialization of RedCap technology is anticipated to further enhance the capabilities of IoT applications, with significant growth expected in sectors like industrial inspection and smart factories [10] Challenges - Despite the positive growth indicators, the industry faces challenges such as reliance on imported core technologies and price sensitivity in the market [9] - The competition in the Cat-1 bis module market is intensifying, leading to a decline in average selling prices (ASP) and creating a "revenue without profit" scenario for many small and medium-sized manufacturers [9] - The need for collaboration across the industry to enhance technological routes, service capabilities, and global compliance is essential for sustaining growth [11]