单日大涨10%！白银还能更疯狂？分析师：库存耗尽、金银比坍塌，结构性赤字支撑长期牛市

Core Viewpoint - Renowned silver analyst Peter Krauth believes that the market has confirmed a $50 bottom, and as it enters a "frenzy phase," the gold-silver ratio is expected to undergo a significant correction, potentially driving silver prices to $300 in the long term due to a supply deficit [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current surge in silver prices is primarily driven by a fundamental imbalance in supply and demand, with a cumulative deficit of approximately 800 million ounces over the past five years, equivalent to nearly one year's worth of mine supply [4][5]. - The Silver Institute forecasts that this deficit will persist for the next five years, highlighting silver as one of the most notable trading targets for 2025 [1][4]. Price Movements and Market Trends - Silver futures prices have skyrocketed by 160% this year, with a 40% increase just this month, significantly outperforming the stock market [1]. - On a recent day, spot silver surged by 10%, reaching $79, indicating a strong upward momentum [1]. Investment Demand - Investment demand for silver is expected to reach nearly 200 million ounces this year, far exceeding previous estimates of 70 million ounces, driven by the popularity of silver-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [5][6]. Gold-Silver Ratio and Price Projections - Krauth's target price of $300 for silver is based on a projected gold-silver ratio dropping to 15, with current gold prices around $4500 [6]. - The gold-silver ratio peaked at 104 in April but has since fallen to around 68, indicating potential for further correction in the future [6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - While the market is in a favorable position for silver, short-term corrections are anticipated, and Krauth emphasizes that the key factors supporting the bullish trend will remain in place for an extended period [6].