南柯一梦叹卢比

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee has depreciated by 5.5% this year, reaching a historical low against the US dollar, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia and among the worst globally [1][2] - The US tariff policy, which imposes a 50% tariff on all Indian goods, is a direct cause of the pressure on the Rupee, potentially lowering India's GDP growth rate by 0.6% to 0.8% [2] - The Indian economy is facing multiple risks, including a widening trade deficit, leading the central bank to adopt a loose monetary policy, which further weakens the Rupee [2][3] Group 2 - Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India is projected to plummet by 96.5% in the 2024/2025 fiscal year, exacerbating the depreciation of the Rupee [3] - The "impossible trinity" theory suggests that India cannot simultaneously achieve monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability, and capital mobility, leading to difficult policy choices [3][4] - Structural issues in the Indian economy, such as high unemployment and low income growth, are long-term challenges that require adjustments in industrial structure rather than relying solely on monetary policy [4] Group 3 - India's IT industry, which once thrived due to its cost-effective labor, is now facing challenges, including a significant layoff announcement from Tata Consultancy Services, indicating a mismatch between industry needs and workforce skills [5][7] - The "service-first" model has led to a dependency on outsourcing, limiting the growth of the manufacturing sector, which currently accounts for only 13% of GDP, far below the target of 25% [6] - The recent increase in oil imports from Russia, facilitated by a Rupee settlement mechanism, has led to a trade surplus for Russia, but the low liquidity of the Rupee in international markets has caused issues, undermining the goal of Rupee internationalization [7][8]