内外盘齐创历史新高！今年银称霸明年换铜？沪铜站上10万大关，纽铜盘中涨超5%

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by a combination of supply concerns and a weakening dollar, with expectations for tighter global copper supply in 2026, positioning copper as a potential outperformer in the metals market next year [1][4][8]. Group 1: Copper Price Performance - On December 26, the Shanghai copper futures broke the 100,000 RMB mark for the first time, closing up over 3.3% [1]. - The New York copper futures also saw significant gains, with the March contract closing above $5.8510 per pound, marking a nearly 5% increase from the previous trading day [1]. - Year-to-date, New York copper has risen approximately 45%, Shanghai copper over 40%, and London copper nearly 39%, driven by supply disruption fears and increased demand from energy transition [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index by nearly 0.8% this week has made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers, contributing to the rise in copper prices [4]. - Concerns over potential tariffs on copper imports and geopolitical uncertainties have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting the demand for copper and other precious metals [4][7]. Group 3: Broader Metal Market Trends - The overall precious metals market has seen significant gains, with silver up over 170%, gold up over 70%, and platinum up 133% this year, reflecting a broader bullish trend in commodities [5]. - The market is experiencing a physical silver squeeze, with investors selling paper silver contracts to buy physical silver, indicating a tight supply situation [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Wall Street analysts are optimistic about copper's performance in 2026, citing severe supply disruptions and weak inventories outside the U.S. as key factors [8][10]. - UBS has a positive outlook on copper and aluminum, suggesting that while gold's risk-reward profile has become less favorable, copper remains a strong investment opportunity [9].