美联储缩表引发“供给荒”，10年期美债交割失败规模创八年新高

Core Viewpoint - The recent friction in the U.S. Treasury market is attributed to the Federal Reserve's reduction of its Treasury holdings since 2022, leading to a significant increase in delivery failures for 10-year Treasury bonds, reaching the highest level in eight years [1][2]. Group 1: Delivery Failures - The scale of delivery failures for the latest 10-year Treasury bonds reached $30.5 billion as of the week ending December 10, marking the highest level since December 2017 [1]. - The failures coincided with an unusual drop in borrowing rates for these bonds, with some holders willing to lend at negative rates, making settlement failures more likely [1]. Group 2: Supply Shortage - A key reason for the delivery failures is the noticeable decrease in the quantity of 10-year Treasuries held by the Federal Reserve that are available for lending. The Fed's current purchase scale is only half of what it was in the previous three cycles, leading to a supply shortage [2]. - In November's auction, the Treasury sold $42 billion in 10-year bonds, with the Fed only adding $6.5 billion to replace maturing debt, compared to previous quarters where the Fed's additional purchases were significantly higher [2]. Group 3: Market Implications - Market participants believe that as the Fed continues its balance sheet reduction, structural tensions in the delivery and settlement of key Treasury maturities may become more frequent, posing new challenges to the stability of short-term funding markets [3].