11月M1增速下滑主要是住户活期存款减少太多

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in M1 growth to 4.9% in November, down from 6.2% in the previous month, while M2 growth decreased to 8.0% from 8.2%, indicating a widening gap between M1 and M2 [2] - The increase in deposits for the first 11 months of this year was 5.4 trillion yuan more than last year, primarily driven by a significant rise in non-financial corporate deposits, which increased by 2.04 trillion yuan compared to a decrease of 2.1 trillion yuan last year [2] - The improvement in corporate deposits is attributed to better financial conditions for companies, facilitated by government bond issuance and local initiatives to clear overdue payments, leading to an increase in M1 [2] Group 2 - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits of 6.74 trillion yuan this year, compared to 5.76 trillion yuan last year, with a significant portion likely flowing into bank wealth management products rather than the stock market [3] - By the end of November, the scale of bank wealth management reached a historical high of 34.0 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0 trillion yuan, indicating that most of the non-bank deposits were used for wealth management [4] - The trend of increasing household deposits continues, with a notable rise in demand for time deposits, as household demand for consumption remains weak, leading to a decline in the growth rate of demand deposits [4][5] Group 3 - The decline in the growth rate of household demand deposits in November is linked to a significant drop in both long-term and short-term loans, particularly a reduction of 2.158 trillion yuan in short-term loans, influenced by stricter regulations on internet consumer loans [5] - The decrease in loan growth has resulted in a reduction of demand deposits, contributing to the overall decline in M1 growth, which may persist despite some forecasts suggesting a recovery due to government bond issuance [5] - The relationship between M1 and M2 is emphasized, with M1 being a critical indicator for market conditions, and the recent decline in M1 growth could have significant implications for the capital market [6]