2026年的平衡之道：通货膨胀与增长报告（英文版）-William Blair

Economic Growth Outlook - The core viewpoint of the report is that opportunities outweigh challenges, with economic growth expected to broaden and accelerate in 2026, despite persistent inflation and policy uncertainties [1] - Economic growth will be driven by a robust consumer sector, with real wage growth above historical averages and tax benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) enhancing consumer spending [2] - Investment in AI-related capital expenditures is projected to continue expanding, with data center spending reaching nearly $40 billion annually and a forecasted global investment need of $5-7 trillion over the next five years [2][58] Inflation and Policy Risks - Inflation remains a significant vulnerability, with the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) stable at 3.0%, driven by demand-side factors and structural changes in supply chains [3][67] - The Federal Reserve's ability to adjust monetary policy is limited, with expectations of a potential rate cut to around 3% by 2026, although actual cuts may be less than anticipated due to ongoing inflationary pressures [3][79] - The report highlights the risk of sticky inflation due to labor market tightness and demographic shifts, which may limit the Fed's capacity for further easing [3][74] Market and Policy Outlook - Domestic policy uncertainty is expected to decrease, while foreign policy risks remain elevated, particularly regarding competition with China and global trade dynamics [4][24] - The S&P 500's current price-to-earnings ratio is at 26, indicating that future returns will rely more on earnings growth (estimated at 11.5%) rather than valuation expansion [4] - A balanced market structure is anticipated, with small-cap and quality stocks likely to gain more attention as economic growth broadens [4] Consumer and Labor Market Dynamics - The consumer sector is projected to remain solid, supported by real wage growth and potential tax refunds from the OBBB, with an average payout of around $700 per household [32][36] - The labor market is characterized by structural tightness, with a high labor force participation rate among prime-age workers, which is expected to drive productivity improvements [42][43] - Households are in a strong financial position, with income growth outpacing debt growth, enhancing their resilience against economic downturns [39][41]