拜登预言成真，让特朗普干完这4年，美国或将成为世界老二？

Economic Impact - The overall tariff rate in the U.S. has surged from 2.4% to 16.8%, the highest level since 1935, leading to increased consumer prices and higher corporate costs [1] - The Federal Reserve estimates that tariffs have raised core inflation by 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points, with consumer prices for appliances and electronics rising over 10% [1] - The contribution of tariffs to personal consumption expenditure inflation reached 10.9% over the past 12 months [1] GDP and Employment Forecasts - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3%, driven mainly by consumption and a reduction in the trade deficit, but long-term tariff policies may slow economic growth [3] - Economic forecasts for U.S. growth in 2025 have been downgraded from 2.1% to 1.9%, with 2026 expected at 1.8% [5] - The unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% to 4.6%, with projections suggesting it could reach 5% if tariff policies persist [5] Comparison with China - China's GDP is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025, significantly outpacing the U.S. growth forecast of 1.9% [7] - By 2028, China's GDP may reach $23.45 trillion, positioning it as a leading economic engine in Asia [7] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has not seen significant changes despite tariff policies, as supply chain disruptions have led to increased imports [7] International Relations and Influence - Trump's tariff policies have strained relationships with allies, diminishing U.S. international influence and leading to a perception of the U.S. as a source of trouble rather than a leader [15] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with countries like Saudi Arabia considering non-dollar payment methods for oil exports [11][13] - China's Belt and Road Initiative and its growing partnerships, including a $3 billion commercial agreement with Saudi Arabia, highlight its expanding global influence [15]