“美元崩盘”危机警报拉响！机构预测2026金银或再飙升，或引爆比特币新一轮行情

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a rare "divergent trend" where cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are declining while precious metals and U.S. stocks are rising significantly as the year ends [1][3]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price is currently around $90,000, down from its historical peak of approximately $126,000 in October, indicating a notable decline [1]. - The recent weakness in Bitcoin is seen as a reflection of reduced risk appetite and profit-taking, although some analysts suggest it may now appear "attractive" in relative valuation [3]. - The market is divided on Bitcoin's future trajectory, with some analysts indicating potential for a rebound if macro liquidity improves and expectations for policy easing rise [3]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices have surged this year, with gold increasing by about 20% and silver by 64% [1]. - Analysts believe the strength in precious metals is not solely driven by safe-haven demand but is also a strategic response from institutions to changes in the global monetary system and geopolitical risks [1][2]. - Ramnivas Mundada from GlobalData predicts that gold could rise an additional 8% to 15% and silver by 20% to 35% by 2026, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a shift away from dollar dependency [1]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The market is closely watching the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman, with candidates perceived to have a more dovish stance, which could influence interest rate policies [2]. - Discussions around the long-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar are intensifying, with some economists suggesting that the era of a strong dollar is coming to an end [2]. - The current market dynamics reflect a significant differentiation between the performance of traditional assets like gold and silver versus cryptocurrencies, highlighting a potential shift in investment strategies [3].