邓正红能源软实力：地缘溢价回落 国际油价走低 基本面供过于求的格局并未改变

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in global oil prices due to increasing concerns over oversupply and a decrease in geopolitical risk premium, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments on market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Decline - On December 26, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $56.74 per barrel, down $1.61 (2.76%), and Brent crude at $60.64 per barrel, down $1.60 (2.57%) [1]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to the potential for peace negotiations in Ukraine, which has reduced the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported prices [1][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - The anticipated meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump has raised hopes for a peace agreement, further diminishing the geopolitical risk that had previously influenced oil prices [1][3]. - The article emphasizes that while geopolitical risks provided short-term support for oil prices, they did not fundamentally alter the oversupply situation in the market [1][3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Concerns over global oil supply surplus are intensifying, with OPEC's production increases and weak demand creating dual pressure on prices [3]. - The shift in market perception from conflict-driven pricing to supply-demand fundamentals is highlighted, indicating a transition in how oil prices are determined [3][4]. Group 4: Soft Power and Market Dynamics - The article discusses the concept of soft power in the energy market, suggesting that the current decline in oil prices reflects a systemic adjustment of multiple soft power elements [2][4]. - The failure of U.S. hard deterrence to translate into effective soft rules has led to a systematic decline in soft power value in the energy sector [2][4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate oil prices will fluctuate between $58 and $63 per barrel, entering a phase dominated by fundamental factors and revised expectations [5]. - The mid-term outlook suggests that if a U.S.-Ukraine agreement is reached, the global supply landscape may shift towards a "de-geopoliticized" phase, with a focus on new soft power dynamics [5].