钼价依赖叠加七成外协“悬顶”，盛龙股份IPO过会成色几何？

Core Viewpoint - The IPO of Luoyang Shenglong Mining Group Co., Ltd. has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, marking a significant step for the company backed by local state-owned assets in Henan province. The company, a leader in the molybdenum industry, reported revenues of over 2.863 billion yuan and a net profit of 754 million yuan for the fiscal year 2024, supported by its resource endowment of the largest single molybdenum mine in production in China. However, systemic risks are emerging beneath the surface of its impressive financial performance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Background and IPO Process - Shenglong Mining's IPO is characterized by a "rescue restructuring" initiated during a debt crisis in 2020, which led to the formation of the company from the assets of Yongmei Group [3][4]. - The restructuring involved the acquisition of high-quality molybdenum assets by the Henan Energy and Chemical Group, which was crucial for alleviating systemic risks and optimizing local state-owned asset allocation [4][5]. - The company was established in November 2020, with core assets injected as paid-in capital, positioning it as a leading player in the molybdenum industry [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - Shenglong Mining's revenue grew from 1.911 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.864 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5%, while net profit increased from 344 million yuan to 754 million yuan, achieving a CAGR of 48.3% [9]. - The company's gross margin fluctuated significantly, reflecting its dependence on molybdenum prices, with a gross margin of 49.67% in 2022, peaking at 59.94% in 2023, and then declining to 50.99% in 2024 [9][10]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The company faces potential risks related to goodwill impairment, as it has a goodwill of 121 million yuan, with concerns about asset quality and the impact of declining molybdenum prices on profitability [5][6]. - High levels of related-party transactions, with nearly 40% of procurement in the 2023 fiscal year being related-party transactions, raise questions about the company's operational independence and sustainability [6][10]. - The company's reliance on external contractors for core production processes has increased, with the outsourcing ratio for molybdenum concentrate rising from 29.98% in 2022 to 77.78% in the first half of 2025, which could amplify operational uncertainties [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to raise 1.53 billion yuan through its IPO to fund mining projects and enhance its operational capabilities, but the timing of these investments may not align with immediate profit growth, leading to potential declines in return on equity (ROE) [6][10]. - The ability to balance the expansion of self-owned production capacity with optimized outsourcing partnerships will be critical for mitigating supply chain risks and ensuring sustainable growth [12].