美联储降息托底！人民币升破7，A股春季行情信号已现？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has broken the key 7 level against the USD, marking a significant appreciation since early 2025, reaching a new high since October 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The RMB's strength is primarily supported by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, with continuous interest rate cuts in 2025 leading to a weakened USD [4]. - The depreciation of the USD has shifted global capital flows, with funds moving towards emerging markets, including RMB assets, enhancing the RMB's appreciation [6]. Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market has shown positive momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a seven-day rise and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index recording five consecutive increases [2]. - On December 25, A-share trading volume reached 1.2 trillion, with expectations of total daily volume nearing 2 trillion, indicating a significant increase in market activity [8][10]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The RMB's appreciation is expected to continue into the first half of 2026, supported by a relatively loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [14]. - The potential return of northbound capital and increased foreign investment in A-shares could trigger a spring market rally, with the RMB breaking the 7 level serving as an important signal [16][17].