Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar returned to the "6" range for the first time in 15 months, closing at 6.9973 on December 25, 2025, defying market expectations that it would remain above "7" [1] - The direct driver of RMB appreciation is the decline of the US dollar, particularly after the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts, leading to a drop in the dollar index below 100 [3] - The appreciation of the RMB is positively impacting import enterprises, reducing procurement costs for commodities like oil and agricultural products, which translates into improved profit margins [3] Group 2 - Export enterprises are facing challenges due to the RMB appreciation, with a Zhejiang small commodity trader noting that a $100,000 order now yields only 700,000 RMB compared to 730,000 RMB earlier in the year, squeezing profit margins [5] - The capital market's response is mixed; while RMB appreciation has attracted foreign capital into Chinese assets, investors in Hong Kong are experiencing currency exchange losses [5] - The improvement in China's economic fundamentals, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in export value in USD terms for the first ten months of 2025, is enhancing foreign investment interest in RMB assets [7] Group 3 - Companies are adopting divergent strategies in response to currency fluctuations; some export firms are using forward foreign exchange tools to lock in rates, while import firms are adjusting their procurement schedules [8] - The central bank is maintaining vigilance, emphasizing the need to keep the RMB exchange rate stable and preventing excessive fluctuations, as indicated by the setting of the mid-price at 7.0392 despite market rates breaching 7.0 [8] - The RMB's performance against a basket of currencies shows significant appreciation against the US dollar but remains weak against non-USD currencies like the euro and yen, suggesting limited impact on export competitiveness in those markets [10]
时隔15个月,人民币破7引发资产重估!普通人如何抓住升值红利?专家揭秘三大受益领域
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-27 13:49