“今年亚洲表现最糟糕的货币”，印度卢比怎么了？

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has been identified as the worst-performing currency in Asia for the year, with a depreciation of 5.5% against the US dollar, reaching a historical low, raising concerns about Prime Minister Modi's dream of "Rupee internationalization" [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - The direct cause of the Rupee's pressure is the US tariff policy, which includes a proposed 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, leading to a loss of confidence in the Indian market [2][4]. - According to Citigroup, the tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points, while Morgan Stanley reports that the MSCI India index has underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets index for four consecutive months, lagging by over 15% this year [4]. - The Reserve Bank of India's tightening policies have exacerbated the Rupee's situation, with four interest rate cuts totaling 125 basis points this year, reflecting a weak overall economic environment [4][5]. Group 2: Capital Outflow and Investment - India is facing significant capital outflow pressures, with net foreign direct investment (FDI) for the fiscal year 2024/2025 plummeting by 96.5% from $10 billion to $35.3 million, marking a historical low [5]. - This capital outflow creates a vicious cycle where economic stagnation leads to further interest rate cuts, which in turn causes additional Rupee depreciation [5]. Group 3: Structural Issues in the Economy - Experts suggest that India's economic stagnation is a long-term issue rooted in structural contradictions, including high unemployment, poor income growth prospects, and monopolistic market conditions [8]. - The IT sector, once a source of pride for India, is now facing challenges due to its reliance on low-end outsourcing, with the manufacturing sector contributing only 13% to GDP, far below the 25% target [9][11]. - The recent announcement by Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to lay off 12,000 employees highlights the structural deficiencies in India's economy, particularly in adapting to the AI technology wave [11]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The "Rupee settlement mechanism" with Russia, initiated to facilitate oil imports amidst Western sanctions, initially appeared to be a milestone for Rupee internationalization but has faced significant challenges due to low liquidity in the international market [12][14]. - The Russian Foreign Minister's comments on the inability to utilize Rupees effectively indicate the lack of economic stability and international credibility supporting India's ambitions for Rupee internationalization [14].