对银行理财业务高质量发展的思考

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management business is facing challenges, including insufficient participation in the new economy and declining returns on pure fixed-income products. Institutions need to develop competitive "fixed-income plus" products and enhance trust among distributors and investors to adapt to economic transformation and capitalize on opportunities in capital markets [1][2][5]. Group 1: Necessity of Wealth Management Business Transformation - The attractiveness of fixed-income products is declining, necessitating the creation of more competitive offerings. The average monthly yield of wealth management products is projected to drop to around 2.0% by Q3 2025, down from 2.65% in 2024, indicating a decrease of 65 basis points [2]. - In contrast, equity assets are showing increasing returns, with the annual growth of the Wind All A index at 10.0% in 2024 and 26.4% from January to October 2025. The historical annualized return for the index over the past 20 years is 12.0%, suggesting that increasing equity allocations can enhance long-term returns for wealth management products [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy for Wealth Management - The transformation of fixed-income products should focus on credit exploration, duration strategies, and leverage strategies to enhance portfolio returns while managing risk preferences of investors [6]. - Diversifying into equity assets can theoretically improve overall portfolio returns. Historical data shows that holding the Wind All A index over 20 years yields an annualized return of 12.0%, compared to 4.0% for the China Bond Composite Index [8][9]. Group 3: Timing and Selection Strategies - Timing strategies can further enhance portfolio returns by adjusting asset allocations based on economic cycles. A constructed economic cycle indicator shows a positive correlation with GDP growth and a negative correlation with bond yields [13][16]. - Implementing a timing strategy based on economic cycles can improve returns, with a simulated portfolio yielding an average annualized return of 5.08%, significantly outperforming a pure bond portfolio [16][18]. Group 4: Liability Side Transformation - The transformation on the liability side focuses on enhancing recognition and trust in "fixed-income plus" products among distribution channels and investors. This requires a dual approach of improving investment strategies and making necessary adjustments on the product side [22]. - Lengthening the investment duration of "fixed-income plus" products can help reduce loss risks and improve returns. Data indicates that extending the investment period from 9 months to 15 months leads to higher median returns and lower loss probabilities across various strategies [23][24]. Group 5: Overall Transformation Strategy - The transformation of the banking wealth management business is a lengthy process that requires enhancing investment capabilities through asset allocation, timing, and selection strategies to develop competitive "fixed-income plus" products. Additionally, building trust among distribution channels and investors is crucial for scaling these products [25].