财通证券：1月资金扰动加大，央行呵护吗？

Group 1 - The central bank has released signals of precise support for liquidity in December, but actual liquidity injection has shown a slight contraction compared to previous months [1][19][24] - In January, liquidity is expected to be influenced by factors such as credit, government debt payments, tax collection, and cash withdrawals for the Spring Festival, leading to increased market disturbances [2][30][34] - The central bank's operations in January are anticipated to be more aggressive, potentially increasing government bond purchases and lowering reserve requirements, with a possibility of interest rate cuts [2][39][41] Group 2 - In December, the liquidity environment was optimistic, with the DR001 rate declining, indicating ample funding from state-owned banks despite a cautious approach from the central bank [2][19][28] - The upcoming week (December 29 - January 2) will see a decrease in reverse repos maturing, with a total of 1,526 billion yuan due, and no government bond issuances expected [4][43] - The net financing of government bonds for the upcoming week is projected to be 174.5 billion yuan, with a significant focus on local government bond issuances [10][49] Group 3 - The expected credit issuance in January is projected to be around 53,500 billion yuan, marking a seasonal peak, while government bond financing is estimated at 12,600 billion yuan [11][33][38] - The total amount of maturing certificates of deposit (CDs) in January is expected to be 22,797 billion yuan, a decrease from December's 37,066 billion yuan, which may reduce pressure on bank liabilities [11][37] - The overall market liquidity is expected to remain loose, with minor disturbances anticipated in the funding environment [6][43]