越南首富紧急撤资，南北高铁8天就梦碎，这个“天坑”谁接谁破产？

Core Viewpoint - Vingroup Group, led by Vietnam's richest man Pham Nhat Vuong, has withdrawn its investment registration for the North-South high-speed rail project, causing significant turmoil in the Vietnamese capital market and raising doubts about the project's viability [1][4]. Group 1: Project Viability - The North-South high-speed rail project faces insurmountable competition from the airline industry, which offers lower prices and faster travel times, making it difficult for high-speed rail to attract passengers [3][4]. - The projected ticket price for the high-speed rail is at least 700 RMB, which is 2.5 times more expensive than air travel, and the travel time is also 2.5 times longer, leading to a lack of competitiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Cost Structure - The total investment for the high-speed rail is approximately $77 billion, which is 15% of Vietnam's 2024 GDP and 90% of its fiscal revenue, significantly higher than the investment for China's Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail [4][9]. - The high costs are attributed to Vietnam's reliance on imported technology and materials, which keeps construction costs high [4][6]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The operational costs for the high-speed rail are projected to be $4.2 billion annually, which does not include interest, depreciation, and maintenance costs, leading to unsustainable financial pressures [6][7]. - Vingroup has already committed to several large-scale national projects, and taking on the high-speed rail would create a financial black hole that could jeopardize the entire Vingroup ecosystem [7][9]. Group 4: Government Involvement - Vingroup and another interested party, Longhai Group, have requested significant government support, indicating that the project is viewed as a fiscal burden rather than a commercial opportunity [7][9]. - The Vietnamese government lacks the financial capacity to support such a large-scale project, as its 2024 GDP is only $476 billion, and it relies heavily on foreign investment for infrastructure projects [9].