日本2026财年预算获批，军费突破9万亿，与“拥核”言论形成呼应

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Cabinet has approved a record budget of 122.31 trillion yen (approximately 785 billion USD) for the fiscal year 2026, marking a significant increase from the previous year's 115.2 trillion yen, reflecting a shift towards expansionary fiscal policies under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government, particularly in defense spending and nuclear discussions [1][3]. Budget Structure - The budget allocates 39.1 trillion yen for social security due to aging issues and 31.3 trillion yen for debt servicing, while the initial defense budget exceeds 9 trillion yen, marking 14 consecutive years of growth [3][5]. - The government plans to issue 29.6 trillion yen in bonds to cover fiscal deficits and has proposed a budget of 18.1 billion yen to expand its arms export mechanism, indicating a clear strategy of prioritizing military expansion under the guise of economic development [3][5]. Military Expansion - The defense budget of 9 trillion yen focuses on offensive capabilities, including long-range strikes, drones, and cyber warfare, and aims to enhance Japan's "government security capability strengthening support" mechanism, which is crucial for arms exports [5][7]. - Kishida's administration has shifted Japan's military strategy from "defensive" to "preemptive," breaking post-war security frameworks and indicating a move towards offensive military capabilities [3][5]. Nuclear Discussions - Recent discussions around nuclear armament have gained traction, with officials advocating for Japan to possess nuclear weapons, contradicting the country's historical stance against nuclear armament [7][10]. - The government is reportedly considering revising the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," which could pave the way for Japan to abandon its long-standing commitment to non-nuclear policies [7][10]. Fiscal Concerns - Japan's government debt has reached 240% of GDP, the highest among major economies, with 31.3 trillion yen in debt servicing consuming a significant portion of fiscal revenue, limiting funds available for social welfare [8][10]. - The reliance on extensive borrowing to maintain expansionary fiscal policies has led to a sell-off of long-term bonds, pushing 10-year bond yields to a 27-year high, raising concerns about potential fiscal collapse [8][10]. Regional Reactions - Japan's military expansion is provoking responses from neighboring countries, with China and Russia expressing concerns over regional stability and Japan's actions being viewed as a challenge to post-war international order [10]. - Domestic opposition, including voices from nuclear bomb survivor groups and political parties, is rising against the government's nuclear rhetoric, urging adherence to the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" [10].