2025期货业盘点｜长安期货：钢材价格下行空间有限，双焦价格或稳中有升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dual焦 (coke and coking coal) prices are expected to steadily rise by 2026 due to policy support and supply constraints, while the steel market is transitioning to a dynamic balance, with price stability anticipated [1] - The steel industry's main contradiction this year is that the decline in demand is greater than the decline in production, leading to a continuous decrease in crude steel apparent consumption for the fifth consecutive year [3] - The real estate sector is undergoing deep adjustments, with infrastructure investment growth turning negative, and manufacturing investment growth dropping below 3%, which is expected to limit demand growth in the steel market [3] Group 2 - The dual焦 market is currently in a "tight balance" state, with low inventory strategies maintained by both coke producers and steel mills, while coal prices have been fluctuating [4][5] - The demand structure for coal is undergoing significant changes, with a slight increase in thermal coal consumption, but overall coal prices are expected to experience a similar trend of decline followed by recovery [5] - The steel industry is expected to maintain demand resilience under policy support, but environmental restrictions will limit significant growth in焦炭 (coke) demand, leading to ongoing profit competition among焦钢 (coke and steel) enterprises [5]